What are the chances that each favored seed gets upended?

Davis Rich | Editor-in-Chief

If anything, the conference semifinals have been competitive. Every series will go to a Game Six and two are tied as of tonight. With each series headed into the home stretch, it’s time to gauge who will come out on top. Here’s a look at each favored seed’s Scare Meter–a totally and completely objective metric scrupulously calculated by yours truly and presented on a scale of one to ten. How worried should the top seeds be?

Golden State Warriors– Scare Meter: 6

The Warriors-Grizzlies series has been determined by adjustments. After Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson torched Memphis for 40 points on just 34 shots in Game One, Dave Joerger sicced Mike Conley and Tony Allen on the Splash Brothers. The increased defensive intensity paid off, as Curry and Thompson couldn’t keep track of the ball, turning it over 15 times combined in two consecutive losses. Yet Steve Kerr met Joerger adjustment for adjustment. Kerr realized that while Tony Allen might be first team all-defense, he’s no offensive superstar. Kerr took one glance at Allen’s shot chart (pictured below), and realized that if Allen became a liability on one end of the court, his capabilities on the other end would be minimized.

By doubling the post and forcing Allen to shoot (and miss) three early three-pointers, Kerr mitigated Allen’s involvement and opened the door for Curry to get easier shots. The test for the Grizzlies will come tomorrow. Kerr will utilize the same strategy. Can Joerger and Allen counter?

Houston Rockets– Scare Meter: 8

As I write this, the Rockets are crushing the Clippers and sending the series to a sixth game. Yet I still don’t see the Rockets coming back from a 3-1 deficit, or even forcing a seventh game. The Rockets haven’t clamped down defensively in the playoffs, allowing 114.2 points per game which is tied for the worst mark of any team this postseason. The turnaround (if it is to come) will need to start inside. Dwight Howard has been the most efficient Houston defender, but he has grappled with foul trouble, causing Kevin McHale to defer to the vulgar Hack-A-Jordan strategy. If Dwight can stay out of foul trouble and force the Clippers to beat them with actual offensive schemes and real plays, the Rockets have a fighting chance. 

Cleveland Cavaliers– Scare Meter: 4

Cleveland sits one game away from a berth in the conference finals, needing to win one of their final two to put away Chicago. The series has featured many things: speculation as to how Cleveland would adapt without Kevin Love, the emergence (or resurgence) of Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose, and back-to-back buzzer-beaters, yet I think the weight of the series lies on LeBron James’s shoulders. The King shifted the series in Cleveland’s favor Monday night, dropping 38 points with only 24 shots and adding 12 rebounds and six assists. And yet, hampered by a lingering ankle issue, James isn’t even at peak efficiency. A win in Game Six and some much needed time off to recover would go along way towards Cleveland’s title chances.

Atlanta Hawks– Scare Meter: 7

Another week, another Jason Concepcion reference. The Grantland basketball writer summed up Atlanta’s troubles with the Wizards perfectly: “If someone told you before the playoffs that these Spurs-lite Hawks would meet the retrograde Wizards of Randy Wittman in the second round, and that Nene would score two points on 0.0 percent shooting over the first two games of said series, that John Wall would fracture five bones in his left wrist and hand, and that Ramon Sessions and former Guangdong Southern Tiger Will Bynum would be key players, you would probably be thinking the Hawks had one hand on the knob to the broom closet. For the Wiz being up 2-1 after three games, using the above information, one might have to assume the Hawks were involved in a devastating mass-transit accident.”

This series shouldn’t be close. While Atlanta isn’t the scorching hot team it was in January, it shouldn’t be locked in a stalemate with a team which, for most of the season, had an offensive strategy popular before the Internet was created. The Hawks will need to claw (see what I did there) their way into the conference finals. Atlanta caught a break when John Wall’s hand exploded. It’s time to capitalize now.