Want to know why California might decide whether or not Trump wins the Republican nomination? Read to find out.

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By Connor Ryland 

Although when it comes to the general election California holds a large amount of weight, through the large number of delegates in the electoral college, it is rare for the Republican Primary in California to have nearly the same impact. Typically by this time there is a clear runaway for the Republican Candidate who either has the nomination locked up or needs one to two more states to hit the delegate requirement for nomination. This is not a typical election for both parties. 

Although nearly a month ago it looked like Donald Trump, not a typical election, would easily be able to hit the delegate requirement for nomination. Perhaps the biggest setback for Trump was Wisconsin which was the first of several failed states for Trump. In Colorado, a toss up state, Trump received no delegates while he also received no delegates in Utah, he was not expected to win but fivethirtyeight believed he would receive a few.

In a recent fivethirtyeight prediction they have Trump managing to chisel out 1,155 delegates of the 1,237 delegates needed to earn the nomination. In this case Trump would move into the July Republican Convention without the numbers needed in which delegates pledged to him, via state primary votes, become unbound and free to pledge to whoever they support. For Trump this is a scary possibility considering he has lacked success with convincing uncommitted delegates to pledge support, unlike Hillary who is winning mainly due to superdelegates.

Of the remaining states California is one of the most important ones left, with 172 delegates up for grabs. Thirteen of the 127 Californian delegates are awarded on a winner take all system while the remaining 159 delegates are divided equally between the 53 congressional districts, three delegates per a district, in a winner take all system per each district. In California only Republican registered voters are able to vote in the Republican primary leading to a small number of Republican voters in very blue districts, such as San Francisco. In these districts each vote will make a large difference in the district, and the state as a whole.

As far as predicting how the state will turn out, nobody knows. There is very little historical precedent on California voting in Republican primaries, because it has not mattered usually, and little polling thus far on individual district. Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, admitted that a prediction for California was incredibly difficult to do because of how little data exists for the state.

Make no mistake, California will make a huge difference. If Trump manages to win by a large amount in California it will place him considerably closer to the 1,237 delegates needed and he might be able to swing a few undecided voters his way to victory. If Trump enters the convention significantly far from the 1,237 delegates needed the Republican nomination will become even more difficult to succeed.